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Unpacking Climate Risk
Fresh, uncompromising takes on climate risk and the financial industry

Featured articles

Net zero meets political reality: why central banks are walking a tightrope

Net zero meets political reality: why central banks are walking a tightrope

Fed up and done

Fed up and done

The LA wildfires: I thought house prices were supposed to fall?

The LA wildfires: I thought house prices were supposed to fall?

Quantum theory, climate risk, and the limits of simulations

Quantum theory, climate risk, and the limits of simulations

Lessons for climate risk from the Fed’s stress test lawsuit

Lessons for climate risk from the Fed’s stress test lawsuit

Wall Street’s climate retreat: “What are we doing here?”

Wall Street’s climate retreat: “What are we doing here?”

Unpacking 2024

Unpacking 2024

The EU’s insurance regulator suggests climate capital charges that even it’s not fully sold on

The EU’s insurance regulator suggests climate capital charges that even it’s not fully sold on

A Laffer Curve for physical climate risk

A Laffer Curve for physical climate risk

Central banks discover adaptation is part of the mandate

Central banks discover adaptation is part of the mandate

Climate squeamishness and the anthropomorphization of banks

Climate squeamishness and the anthropomorphization of banks

“Our climate stress test methodology is flawed – we’ll plough on regardless”

“Our climate stress test methodology is flawed – we’ll plough on regardless”

Is central bank independence under threat?

Is central bank independence under threat?

Climate hawks in retreat?

Climate hawks in retreat?

COP29, developing country finance, and the Tobin tax

COP29, developing country finance, and the Tobin tax

Trump is *the* climate tipping point

Trump is *the* climate tipping point

Updating my prior: How recent research has changed my views of climate risk (and how it hasn’t)

Updating my prior: How recent research has changed my views of climate risk (and how it hasn’t)

What does it mean to say climate models are “validated”?

What does it mean to say climate models are “validated”?

What would a Trump presidency mean for climate risk?

What would a Trump presidency mean for climate risk?

What a ‘Future Risks Ranking’ says about climate threats

What a ‘Future Risks Ranking’ says about climate threats

How has the climate debate changed since 1980?

How has the climate debate changed since 1980?

No really, what do climate risk indices measure?

No really, what do climate risk indices measure?

Any takers for Tony’s bet on climate economic risk?

Any takers for Tony’s bet on climate economic risk?

Have Mark Carney’s views changed since 2015?

Have Mark Carney’s views changed since 2015?

Say Yes: How climate-smart investors can do more business

Say Yes: How climate-smart investors can do more business

Why claiming a climate financial crisis is just round the corner makes for bad policy

Why claiming a climate financial crisis is just round the corner makes for bad policy

The Great Climate Migration is good news for banks

The Great Climate Migration is good news for banks

Do climate risks spell doom for community banks?

Do climate risks spell doom for community banks?

Asheville is a climate calamity: What comes next?

Asheville is a climate calamity: What comes next?

How climate risks imperil development projects

How climate risks imperil development projects

Is climate risk cool for cats? Cat models, that is!

Is climate risk cool for cats? Cat models, that is!

Reflecting on green bond risk

Reflecting on green bond risk

The Microeconomics of Climate VaR

The Microeconomics of Climate VaR

When will transition stop being a future risk?

When will transition stop being a future risk?

Climate finance hawks have an honesty problem

Climate finance hawks have an honesty problem

Reflecting on 100 posts: Tony’s top 5 articles

Reflecting on 100 posts: Tony’s top 5 articles

The politics of climate financial risk

The politics of climate financial risk

Throwback Friday: Louie’s top 5 articles

Throwback Friday: Louie’s top 5 articles

Weathering the weather, whether we like it or not

Weathering the weather, whether we like it or not

Why do central bankers cherry-pick climate research?

Why do central bankers cherry-pick climate research?

Weather shocks and the “adaptation put”

Weather shocks and the “adaptation put”

Economic variables and the lies we tell ourselves

Economic variables and the lies we tell ourselves

Climate PPNR: how global warming affects bank revenues and expenses

Climate PPNR: how global warming affects bank revenues and expenses

A half-assed defense of the static approach to climate stress testing

A half-assed defense of the static approach to climate stress testing

Why understanding Exposure At Default is critical to climate risk management

Why understanding Exposure At Default is critical to climate risk management

A deep dive into the ECB’s climate risk pricing research

A deep dive into the ECB’s climate risk pricing research

Banks charge ‘dirty’ firms more. Is climate risk pricing taking off?

Banks charge ‘dirty’ firms more. Is climate risk pricing taking off?

It's time to talk about climate risk differently

It's time to talk about climate risk differently

Rethinking climate tipping point risks

Rethinking climate tipping point risks

The knowns and unknowns of climate financial risk

The knowns and unknowns of climate financial risk

An untold story: the upside of physical risk

An untold story: the upside of physical risk

The unhappy marriage of climate and financial disclosures

The unhappy marriage of climate and financial disclosures

When it comes to climate disclosures, do you prefer Paleo or a McDiet?

When it comes to climate disclosures, do you prefer Paleo or a McDiet?

Climate storytelling, climate science, and climate fairy tales

Climate storytelling, climate science, and climate fairy tales

A comprehensive review of a comprehensive review (Louie’s Version)

A comprehensive review of a comprehensive review (Louie’s Version)

A comprehensive review of a comprehensive review

A comprehensive review of a comprehensive review

The urge for "fairness" in climate science, and its dangers

The urge for "fairness" in climate science, and its dangers

Why climate storytelling is the antidote to unintelligible models

Why climate storytelling is the antidote to unintelligible models

Why 'otherworldly' temperatures may be good news for some regions

Why 'otherworldly' temperatures may be good news for some regions

Will the greening of central banks survive a crisis?

Will the greening of central banks survive a crisis?

How climate change could create stronger central governments

How climate change could create stronger central governments

The hidden corporate benefits of net zero

The hidden corporate benefits of net zero

How CEO creativity can combat climate physical risks

How CEO creativity can combat climate physical risks

Should bank stress testers worry about the RCP 8.5 controversy?

Should bank stress testers worry about the RCP 8.5 controversy?

Lying without lying: a parody of “research” on the financial risk of nature loss

Lying without lying: a parody of “research” on the financial risk of nature loss

Regulation vs supervision: what’s the best response to climate risk?

Regulation vs supervision: what’s the best response to climate risk?

Coastal erosion, climate change, and the risk to banks

Coastal erosion, climate change, and the risk to banks

Comparing the financial risks of war and climate change

Comparing the financial risks of war and climate change

Dispatches from a major risk conference

Dispatches from a major risk conference

How to limit banks’ appetite for carbon-spouting borrowers

How to limit banks’ appetite for carbon-spouting borrowers

Are Tesla’s robotaxis really worth $7 trillion?

Are Tesla’s robotaxis really worth $7 trillion?

Are climate risk pundits shaping financial return expectations?

Are climate risk pundits shaping financial return expectations?

Paris or bust: the problem with climate capital charges

Paris or bust: the problem with climate capital charges

Absent a crisis, how do you prove the (in)effectiveness of climate regulation?

Absent a crisis, how do you prove the (in)effectiveness of climate regulation?

One climate crisis, many possible climate-related financial shocks

One climate crisis, many possible climate-related financial shocks

Climate causes and consequences

Climate causes and consequences

Climate activism by scientists should be encouraged, but please stop with the pseudo-social science

Climate activism by scientists should be encouraged, but please stop with the pseudo-social science

Toward a new playbook for green central banking

Toward a new playbook for green central banking

Quants have no place computing "outbound" climate risk

Quants have no place computing "outbound" climate risk

Climate tipping points through an option pricing lens

Climate tipping points through an option pricing lens

Is the BoE’s latest climate risk action all it seems?

Is the BoE’s latest climate risk action all it seems?

If it quacks like a duck

If it quacks like a duck

Tesla, Toyota and transition risk

Tesla, Toyota and transition risk

On the toothlessness of the NGFS

On the toothlessness of the NGFS

The Fed proves it: climate scenario analysis is bad public policy

The Fed proves it: climate scenario analysis is bad public policy

Portfolio theory on the eve of destruction

Portfolio theory on the eve of destruction

Is a climate risk vibe shift coming?

Is a climate risk vibe shift coming?

Why confusing financial risk and climate impact is a bad idea

Why confusing financial risk and climate impact is a bad idea

Who should pay for past climate losses?

Who should pay for past climate losses?

Can securitization save finance from climate risks?

Can securitization save finance from climate risks?

A tale of tail risk

A tale of tail risk

To speed corporate action on net zero, let’s be frank

To speed corporate action on net zero, let’s be frank

Climate risk is now in the banking supervisors’ bible. Is it a big deal?

Climate risk is now in the banking supervisors’ bible. Is it a big deal?

A deep(ish) dive into that “$38trn income loss by 2050” climate risk article

A deep(ish) dive into that “$38trn income loss by 2050” climate risk article

A disputation on the use of scenario analysis to assess climate risk

A disputation on the use of scenario analysis to assess climate risk

Maybe climate scenarios are 'malarkey'?

Maybe climate scenarios are 'malarkey'?

Climate change and insurance: digging deeper than The Economist

Climate change and insurance: digging deeper than The Economist

Climate change, housing supply, and The Economist’s grasp of economics

Climate change, housing supply, and The Economist’s grasp of economics

“Forward-looking data” isn’t all mumbo-jumbo

“Forward-looking data” isn’t all mumbo-jumbo

Critical but not urgent: how the precautionary principle applies to climate policy

Critical but not urgent: how the precautionary principle applies to climate policy

Trust me, I’m an expert

Trust me, I’m an expert

A new paper argues FinReg is slowing the climate transition. I’m not convinced

A new paper argues FinReg is slowing the climate transition. I’m not convinced

Science is the tonic for climate doomerism

Science is the tonic for climate doomerism

Looking for wisdom in Davos dummy spits

Looking for wisdom in Davos dummy spits

Yes, banks are the ‘climate police’. We all are

Yes, banks are the ‘climate police’. We all are

How much will climate change impact the economy? I don’t know (Part III)

How much will climate change impact the economy? I don’t know (Part III)

Nationalization by stealth: The effect of climate change on the insurance sector

Nationalization by stealth: The effect of climate change on the insurance sector

How much will climate change impact the economy? I don’t know (Part II)

How much will climate change impact the economy? I don’t know (Part II)

What if emissions aren’t a good proxy for transition risk?

What if emissions aren’t a good proxy for transition risk?

How much will climate change impact the economy? I don’t know (Part I)

How much will climate change impact the economy? I don’t know (Part I)

Nigeria and the lopsided distribution of climate-related banking risk

Nigeria and the lopsided distribution of climate-related banking risk

Lost in transition

Lost in transition

Modern Malthusians: Are cascading climate losses really inevitable?

Modern Malthusians: Are cascading climate losses really inevitable?

How the Bank of England overplayed its hand on climate risk

How the Bank of England overplayed its hand on climate risk

The financial climate threat is real, but for whom?

The financial climate threat is real, but for whom?

Welcome to Unpacking Climate Risk!

Welcome to Unpacking Climate Risk!

Climate risk management according to Tony

Climate risk management according to Tony

Climate risk management according to Louie

Climate risk management according to Louie

Feb
21

Net zero meets political reality: why central banks are walking a tightrope

6 min read
Feb
09

Fed up and done

4 min read
Feb
06

The LA wildfires: I thought house prices were supposed to fall?

5 min read
Jan
17

Quantum theory, climate risk, and the limits of simulations

4 min read
Jan
10

Lessons for climate risk from the Fed’s stress test lawsuit

6 min read